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ES Tunis vs Stade Tunisien — Cup 2019

ES Tunis
ES Tunisadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stade Tunisien
Stade Tunisien
6/1/2025CupCup · FinalStade olympique Hammadi-Agrebi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

ES Tunis48%
×Draw23%
Stade Tunisien29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Tunis
1.82
Stade Tunisien
1.38

ES Tunis creates 32% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

ES Tunis
2.33
Stade Tunisien
2.08

allows per match

ES Tunis
0.67
Stade Tunisien
1.31

finishing

ES Tunis+0.00on par
Stade Tunisien+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Tunis ↓

Stade Tunisien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

ES Tunis or draw
71%
ES Tunis or Stade Tunisien
77%
Draw or Stade Tunisien
52%

Winning margin

ES Tunis wins by 2+
26%
Stade Tunisien wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

ES Tunis 1+ goals
84%
ES Tunis 2+ goals
54%
ES Tunis 3+ goals
27%
Stade Tunisien 1+ goals
75%
Stade Tunisien 2+ goals
40%
Stade Tunisien 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

ES Tunis (draw refunded)
62%
Stade Tunisien (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Tunis at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Stade Tunisien away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Tunis attack 2.33 + Stade Tunisien defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.82

Stade Tunisien attack 2.08 + ES Tunis defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

ES Tunis scores more
48%
level
23%
Stade Tunisien scores more
29%

ES Tunis at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ES Tunis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ES Tunis vs Stade Tunisien

ES Tunis beat Stade Tunisien 1-0 in Cup on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stade olympique Hammadi-Agrebi in Radès.