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ES Tunis vs Sagrada Esperança — CAF Champions League 2019

ES Tunis
ES Tunis
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
1/18/2025CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group Stage - 6Stade olympique Hammadi-Agrebi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

ES Tunis70%
×Draw22%
Sagrada Esperança8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Tunis
1.69
Sagrada Esperança
0.39

ES Tunis creates 333% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 9 away

creates per match

ES Tunis
1.50
Sagrada Esperança
0.33

allows per match

ES Tunis
0.45
Sagrada Esperança
1.89

finishing

ES Tunis+0.00on par
Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Tunis ↓

Sagrada Esperança →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

ES Tunis or draw
92%
ES Tunis or Sagrada Esperança
78%
Draw or Sagrada Esperança
30%

Winning margin

ES Tunis wins by 2+
41%
Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

ES Tunis 1+ goals
82%
ES Tunis 2+ goals
50%
ES Tunis 3+ goals
24%
Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
32%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
6%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

ES Tunis (draw refunded)
90%
Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Tunis at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.45 · 40 matches

Sagrada Esperança away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Tunis attack 1.50 + Sagrada Esperança defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.69

Sagrada Esperança attack 0.33 + ES Tunis defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

ES Tunis scores more
70%
level
22%
Sagrada Esperança scores more
8%

ES Tunis at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "ES Tunis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: ES Tunis 4–1 Sagrada Esperança

ES Tunis beat Sagrada Esperança 4-1 in CAF Champions League on January 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stade olympique Hammadi-Agrebi in Radès.