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ES Tunis vs Rahimo — CAF Champions League 2019

ES Tunis
ES Tunis
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rahimo
Rahimo
10/26/2025CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundStade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

ES Tunis80%
×Draw15%
Rahimo5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Tunis
2.25
Rahimo
0.39

ES Tunis creates 477% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 3 away

creates per match

ES Tunis
1.50
Rahimo
0.33

allows per match

ES Tunis
0.45
Rahimo
3.00

finishing

ES Tunis+0.00on par
Rahimo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Tunis ↓

Rahimo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (18%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

ES Tunis or draw
95%
ES Tunis or Rahimo
85%
Draw or Rahimo
20%

Winning margin

ES Tunis wins by 2+
55%
Rahimo wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

ES Tunis 1+ goals
89%
ES Tunis 2+ goals
65%
ES Tunis 3+ goals
39%
Rahimo 1+ goals
32%
Rahimo 2+ goals
6%
Rahimo 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

ES Tunis (draw refunded)
94%
Rahimo (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Tunis at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.45 · 40 matches

Rahimo away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Tunis attack 1.50 + Rahimo defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Rahimo attack 0.33 + ES Tunis defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

ES Tunis scores more
80%
level
15%
Rahimo scores more
5%

ES Tunis at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "ES Tunis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ES Tunis vs Rahimo

ES Tunis beat Rahimo 3-0 in CAF Champions League on October 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi.