ES Tunis 2–0 Pyramids FC: Result & Stats

ES Tunis

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Pyramids FC

12/14/2024

CAF Champions League · Group Stage - 3Stade olympique Hammadi-Agrebi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

ES Tunis46%

×Draw31%

Pyramids FC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ES TunisExpected goals in this matchPyramids FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.72

ES Tunis

1.14

Pyramids FC

0.72

ES Tunis creates 58% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 18 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

0.45

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

ES Tunis

1.50

Pyramids FC

1.00

allows per match

ES Tunis

0.45

Pyramids FC

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ES Tunis+0.00on par

Pyramids FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Tunis ↓

Pyramids FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

ES Tunis or draw

77%

ES Tunis or Pyramids FC

69%

Draw or Pyramids FC

54%

Winning margin

ES Tunis wins by 2+

20%

Pyramids FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

ES Tunis 1+ goals

68%

ES Tunis 2+ goals

32%

ES Tunis 3+ goals

11%

Pyramids FC 1+ goals

51%

Pyramids FC 2+ goals

16%

Pyramids FC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

ES Tunis (draw refunded)

66%

Pyramids FC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Tunis at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.45 · 40 matches

Pyramids FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Tunis attack 1.50 + Pyramids FC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.14

Pyramids FC attack 1.00 + ES Tunis defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ES Tunis scores more

46%

level

31%

Pyramids FC scores more

23%

ES Tunis at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ES Tunis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff