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ES Tunis vs Olympique Béja — Cup 2019

ES Tunis
ES Tunis
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Olympique Béja
Olympique Béjaadvanced
5/28/2023CupCup · FinalStade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

ES Tunis54%
×Draw26%
Olympique Béja20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Tunis
1.54
Olympique Béja
0.83

ES Tunis creates 86% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

ES Tunis
2.33
Olympique Béja
1.00

allows per match

ES Tunis
0.67
Olympique Béja
0.75

finishing

ES Tunis+0.00on par
Olympique Béja+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Tunis ↓

Olympique Béja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

ES Tunis or draw
80%
ES Tunis or Olympique Béja
74%
Draw or Olympique Béja
46%

Winning margin

ES Tunis wins by 2+
28%
Olympique Béja wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

ES Tunis 1+ goals
79%
ES Tunis 2+ goals
45%
ES Tunis 3+ goals
20%
Olympique Béja 1+ goals
56%
Olympique Béja 2+ goals
20%
Olympique Béja 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

ES Tunis (draw refunded)
73%
Olympique Béja (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Tunis at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Olympique Béja away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Tunis attack 2.33 + Olympique Béja defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Olympique Béja attack 1.00 + ES Tunis defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

ES Tunis scores more
54%
level
26%
Olympique Béja scores more
20%

ES Tunis at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "ES Tunis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ES Tunis vs Olympique Béja

Olympique Béja beat ES Tunis 1-0 in Cup on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi in Radès.