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ES Tunis vs Jerba — Cup 2019

ES Tunis
ES Tunisadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Jerba
Jerba
2/15/2023CupCup · Round of 32Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

ES Tunis49%
×Draw26%
Jerba25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Tunis
1.50
Jerba
1.00

ES Tunis creates 50% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

ES Tunis
2.33
Jerba
1.33

allows per match

ES Tunis
0.67
Jerba
0.67

finishing

ES Tunis+0.00on par
Jerba+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Tunis ↓

Jerba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

ES Tunis or draw
75%
ES Tunis or Jerba
74%
Draw or Jerba
51%

Winning margin

ES Tunis wins by 2+
25%
Jerba wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

ES Tunis 1+ goals
78%
ES Tunis 2+ goals
44%
ES Tunis 3+ goals
19%
Jerba 1+ goals
63%
Jerba 2+ goals
26%
Jerba 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

ES Tunis (draw refunded)
66%
Jerba (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Tunis at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Jerba away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Tunis attack 2.33 + Jerba defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Jerba attack 1.33 + ES Tunis defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

ES Tunis scores more
49%
level
26%
Jerba scores more
25%

ES Tunis at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "ES Tunis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ES Tunis vs Jerba

ES Tunis beat Jerba 2-1 in Cup on February 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi in Radès.