ES Tunis 1–0 Al Ahly: Result & Stats

ES Tunis

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Ahly

3/15/2026

CAF Champions League · Quarter-finalsStade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

ES Tunis40%

×Draw32%

Al Ahly29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ES TunisExpected goals in this matchAl Ahly

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.85

ES Tunis

1.05

Al Ahly

0.85

ES Tunis creates 24% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 46 away

1.50

creates per match

1.26

0.45

allows per match

0.61

creates per match

ES Tunis

1.50

Al Ahly

1.26

allows per match

ES Tunis

0.45

Al Ahly

0.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ES Tunis+0.00on par

Al Ahly+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Tunis ↓

Al Ahly →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

ES Tunis or draw

71%

ES Tunis or Al Ahly

68%

Draw or Al Ahly

60%

Winning margin

ES Tunis wins by 2+

16%

Al Ahly wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

ES Tunis 1+ goals

65%

ES Tunis 2+ goals

28%

ES Tunis 3+ goals

9%

Al Ahly 1+ goals

57%

Al Ahly 2+ goals

21%

Al Ahly 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

ES Tunis (draw refunded)

58%

Al Ahly (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Tunis at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.45 · 40 matches

Al Ahly away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Tunis attack 1.50 + Al Ahly defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.05

Al Ahly attack 1.26 + ES Tunis defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ES Tunis scores more

40%

level

32%

Al Ahly scores more

29%

ES Tunis at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ES Tunis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff