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ES Setif vs USM Bel Abbes — Ligue 1 2018

ES Setif
ES Setif
FT
8 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
USM Bel Abbes
USM Bel Abbes
5/22/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 22Stade du 8 Mai 1945

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

ES Setif64%
×Draw23%
USM Bel Abbes13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Setif
1.71
USM Bel Abbes
0.60

ES Setif creates 185% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 46 away

creates per match

ES Setif
1.67
USM Bel Abbes
0.61

allows per match

ES Setif
0.60
USM Bel Abbes
1.74

finishing

ES Setif+0.00on par
USM Bel Abbes+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Setif ↓

USM Bel Abbes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

ES Setif or draw
87%
ES Setif or USM Bel Abbes
77%
Draw or USM Bel Abbes
36%

Winning margin

ES Setif wins by 2+
37%
USM Bel Abbes wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

ES Setif 1+ goals
82%
ES Setif 2+ goals
51%
ES Setif 3+ goals
24%
USM Bel Abbes 1+ goals
45%
USM Bel Abbes 2+ goals
12%
USM Bel Abbes 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

ES Setif (draw refunded)
84%
USM Bel Abbes (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Setif at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.60 · 123 matches

USM Bel Abbes away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Setif attack 1.67 + USM Bel Abbes defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.71

USM Bel Abbes attack 0.61 + ES Setif defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

ES Setif scores more
64%
level
23%
USM Bel Abbes scores more
13%

ES Setif at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "ES Setif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ES Setif vs USM Bel Abbes

ES Setif beat USM Bel Abbes 8-0 in Ligue 1 on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stade du 8 Mai 1945 in Sétif.