ES Setif 3–1 RC Relizane: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

ES Setif

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

RC Relizane

3/3/2017

Ligue 1 · Round 22Stade du 8 Mai 1945 (Stif (Sétif))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

ES Setif68%

×Draw20%

RC Relizane12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ES SetifExpected goals in this matchRC Relizane

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.70

ES Setif

2.02

RC Relizane

0.70

ES Setif creates 189% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 40 away

1.67

creates per match

0.80

0.60

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

ES Setif

1.67

RC Relizane

0.80

allows per match

ES Setif

0.60

RC Relizane

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ES Setif+0.00on par

RC Relizane+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Setif ↓

RC Relizane →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

ES Setif or draw

88%

ES Setif or RC Relizane

80%

Draw or RC Relizane

32%

Winning margin

ES Setif wins by 2+

43%

RC Relizane wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

ES Setif 1+ goals

87%

ES Setif 2+ goals

60%

ES Setif 3+ goals

33%

RC Relizane 1+ goals

50%

RC Relizane 2+ goals

16%

RC Relizane 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

ES Setif (draw refunded)

85%

RC Relizane (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Setif at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.60 · 123 matches

RC Relizane away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.38 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Setif attack 1.67 + RC Relizane defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.02

RC Relizane attack 0.80 + ES Setif defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

ES Setif scores more

68%

level

20%

RC Relizane scores more

12%

ES Setif at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "ES Setif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff