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ES Setif vs RC Arba — Ligue 1 2018

ES Setif
ES Setif
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
RC Arba
RC Arba
1/21/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 14Stade du 8 Mai 1945

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

ES Setif59%
×Draw24%
RC Arba16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Setif
1.63
RC Arba
0.71

ES Setif creates 130% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 33 away

creates per match

ES Setif
1.67
RC Arba
0.82

allows per match

ES Setif
0.60
RC Arba
1.58

finishing

ES Setif+0.00on par
RC Arba+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Setif ↓

RC Arba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

ES Setif or draw
84%
ES Setif or RC Arba
76%
Draw or RC Arba
41%

Winning margin

ES Setif wins by 2+
33%
RC Arba wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

ES Setif 1+ goals
80%
ES Setif 2+ goals
48%
ES Setif 3+ goals
22%
RC Arba 1+ goals
51%
RC Arba 2+ goals
16%
RC Arba 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

ES Setif (draw refunded)
79%
RC Arba (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Setif at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.60 · 123 matches

RC Arba away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Setif attack 1.67 + RC Arba defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.63

RC Arba attack 0.82 + ES Setif defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

ES Setif scores more
59%
level
24%
RC Arba scores more
16%

ES Setif at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "ES Setif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: ES Setif 3–1 RC Arba

ES Setif beat RC Arba 3-1 in Ligue 1 on January 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stade du 8 Mai 1945 in Sétif.