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ES Setif vs Paradou AC — Ligue 1 2018

ES Setif
ES Setif
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Paradou AC
Paradou AC
12/17/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 9Stade du 8 Mai 1945

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

ES Setif53%
×Draw26%
Paradou AC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Setif
1.50
Paradou AC
0.83

ES Setif creates 81% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 120 away

creates per match

ES Setif
1.67
Paradou AC
1.07

allows per match

ES Setif
0.60
Paradou AC
1.32

finishing

ES Setif+0.00on par
Paradou AC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Setif ↓

Paradou AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

ES Setif or draw
79%
ES Setif or Paradou AC
74%
Draw or Paradou AC
47%

Winning margin

ES Setif wins by 2+
27%
Paradou AC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ES Setif 1+ goals
78%
ES Setif 2+ goals
44%
ES Setif 3+ goals
19%
Paradou AC 1+ goals
56%
Paradou AC 2+ goals
20%
Paradou AC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

ES Setif (draw refunded)
72%
Paradou AC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Setif at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.60 · 123 matches

Paradou AC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Setif attack 1.67 + Paradou AC defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.50

Paradou AC attack 1.07 + ES Setif defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

ES Setif scores more
53%
level
26%
Paradou AC scores more
21%

ES Setif at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "ES Setif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ES Setif vs Paradou AC

Paradou AC beat ES Setif 2-1 in Ligue 1 on December 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du 8 Mai 1945 in Sétif.