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ES Setif vs MC Oran — Ligue 1 2018

ES Setif
ES Setif
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
MC Oran
MC Oran
4/17/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 27Stade 8 Mai 1945

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

ES Setif57%
×Draw26%
MC Oran17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Setif
1.52
MC Oran
0.69

ES Setif creates 120% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 122 away

creates per match

ES Setif
1.67
MC Oran
0.78

allows per match

ES Setif
0.60
MC Oran
1.38

finishing

ES Setif+0.00on par
MC Oran+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Setif ↓

MC Oran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

ES Setif or draw
83%
ES Setif or MC Oran
74%
Draw or MC Oran
43%

Winning margin

ES Setif wins by 2+
30%
MC Oran wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

ES Setif 1+ goals
78%
ES Setif 2+ goals
45%
ES Setif 3+ goals
20%
MC Oran 1+ goals
50%
MC Oran 2+ goals
15%
MC Oran 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

ES Setif (draw refunded)
77%
MC Oran (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Setif at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.60 · 123 matches

MC Oran away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.38 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Setif attack 1.67 + MC Oran defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.52

MC Oran attack 0.78 + ES Setif defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

ES Setif scores more
57%
level
26%
MC Oran scores more
17%

ES Setif at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "ES Setif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ES Setif vs MC Oran

ES Setif beat MC Oran 3-0 in Ligue 1 on April 17, 2026.

The match was played at Stade 8 Mai 1945.