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ES Setif vs Horoya — CAF Champions League 2019

ES Setif
ES Setif
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Horoya
Horoya
3/18/2022CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group B - 5Stade du 5 Juillet 1962

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

ES Setif63%
×Draw24%
Horoya13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Setif
1.65
Horoya
0.59

ES Setif creates 180% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 17 away

creates per match

ES Setif
1.71
Horoya
0.47

allows per match

ES Setif
0.71
Horoya
1.59

finishing

ES Setif+0.00on par
Horoya+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Setif ↓

Horoya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

ES Setif or draw
87%
ES Setif or Horoya
76%
Draw or Horoya
37%

Winning margin

ES Setif wins by 2+
36%
Horoya wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

ES Setif 1+ goals
81%
ES Setif 2+ goals
49%
ES Setif 3+ goals
23%
Horoya 1+ goals
45%
Horoya 2+ goals
12%
Horoya 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

ES Setif (draw refunded)
83%
Horoya (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Setif at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Horoya away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Setif attack 1.71 + Horoya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.65

Horoya attack 0.47 + ES Setif defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

ES Setif scores more
63%
level
24%
Horoya scores more
13%

ES Setif at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "ES Setif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ES Setif vs Horoya

ES Setif beat Horoya 3-2 in CAF Champions League on March 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stade du 5 Juillet 1962 in Algiers.