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ES Setif vs El Bayadh — Ligue 1 2018

ES Setif
ES Setif
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Bayadh
El Bayadh
2/8/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 18Stade 8 Mai 1945

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

ES Setif58%
×Draw26%
El Bayadh16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Setif
1.48
El Bayadh
0.63

ES Setif creates 135% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 60 away

creates per match

ES Setif
1.67
El Bayadh
0.65

allows per match

ES Setif
0.60
El Bayadh
1.30

finishing

ES Setif+0.00on par
El Bayadh+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Setif ↓

El Bayadh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

ES Setif or draw
84%
ES Setif or El Bayadh
74%
Draw or El Bayadh
42%

Winning margin

ES Setif wins by 2+
30%
El Bayadh wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

ES Setif 1+ goals
77%
ES Setif 2+ goals
43%
ES Setif 3+ goals
19%
El Bayadh 1+ goals
47%
El Bayadh 2+ goals
13%
El Bayadh 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

ES Setif (draw refunded)
79%
El Bayadh (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Setif at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.60 · 123 matches

El Bayadh away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.30 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Setif attack 1.67 + El Bayadh defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.48

El Bayadh attack 0.65 + ES Setif defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

ES Setif scores more
58%
level
26%
El Bayadh scores more
16%

ES Setif at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "ES Setif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: ES Setif 0–0 El Bayadh

ES Setif and El Bayadh drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on February 8, 2026.

The match was played at Stade 8 Mai 1945.