ES Setif 2–1 CS Constantine: Result & Stats

ES Setif

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

CS Constantine

1/26/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 15Stade du 8 Mai 1945

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

ES Setif52%

×Draw27%

CS Constantine21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ES SetifExpected goals in this matchCS Constantine

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.78

ES Setif

1.40

CS Constantine

0.78

ES Setif creates 79% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 124 away

1.67

creates per match

0.96

0.60

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

ES Setif

1.67

CS Constantine

0.96

allows per match

ES Setif

0.60

CS Constantine

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ES Setif+0.00on par

CS Constantine+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Setif ↓

CS Constantine →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

ES Setif or draw

79%

ES Setif or CS Constantine

73%

Draw or CS Constantine

48%

Winning margin

ES Setif wins by 2+

25%

CS Constantine wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

ES Setif 1+ goals

75%

ES Setif 2+ goals

41%

ES Setif 3+ goals

17%

CS Constantine 1+ goals

54%

CS Constantine 2+ goals

18%

CS Constantine 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

ES Setif (draw refunded)

71%

CS Constantine (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Setif at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.60 · 123 matches

CS Constantine away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.12 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Setif attack 1.67 + CS Constantine defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.40

CS Constantine attack 0.96 + ES Setif defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

ES Setif scores more

52%

level

27%

CS Constantine scores more

21%

ES Setif at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "ES Setif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff