CS Constantine 2–1 ES Setif: Result & Stats

CS Constantine

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

ES Setif

10/25/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 6Stade Mohamed-Hamlaoui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

CS Constantine51%

×Draw28%

ES Setif22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS ConstantineExpected goals in this matchES Setif

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.81

CS Constantine

1.39

ES Setif

0.81

CS Constantine creates 72% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 122 away

1.50

creates per match

0.89

0.74

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

CS Constantine

1.50

ES Setif

0.89

allows per match

CS Constantine

0.74

ES Setif

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Constantine+0.00on par

ES Setif+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Constantine ↓

ES Setif →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

CS Constantine or draw

78%

CS Constantine or ES Setif

72%

Draw or ES Setif

49%

Winning margin

CS Constantine wins by 2+

25%

ES Setif wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

CS Constantine 1+ goals

75%

CS Constantine 2+ goals

40%

CS Constantine 3+ goals

16%

ES Setif 1+ goals

56%

ES Setif 2+ goals

19%

ES Setif 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CS Constantine (draw refunded)

70%

ES Setif (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Constantine at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.74 · 125 matches

ES Setif away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.27 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Constantine attack 1.50 + ES Setif defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

ES Setif attack 0.89 + CS Constantine defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

CS Constantine scores more

51%

level

28%

ES Setif scores more

22%

CS Constantine at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "CS Constantine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff