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ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien — League #202 2026

ES Sahel
ES Sahel
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CS Sfaxien
CS Sfaxien
H. Baccar 25'
5/15/2025League #202League #202 · Round 30Stade Olympique de Sousse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

ES Sahel35%
×Draw34%
CS Sfaxien30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Sahel
0.89
CS Sfaxien
0.80

ES Sahel creates 11% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 40 away

creates per match

ES Sahel
1.00
CS Sfaxien
0.95

allows per match

ES Sahel
0.65
CS Sfaxien
0.78

finishing

ES Sahel+0.00on par
CS Sfaxien+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Sahel ↓

CS Sfaxien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

ES Sahel or draw
70%
ES Sahel or CS Sfaxien
66%
Draw or CS Sfaxien
65%

Winning margin

ES Sahel wins by 2+
12%
CS Sfaxien wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

ES Sahel 1+ goals
59%
ES Sahel 2+ goals
22%
ES Sahel 3+ goals
6%
CS Sfaxien 1+ goals
55%
CS Sfaxien 2+ goals
19%
CS Sfaxien 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

ES Sahel (draw refunded)
54%
CS Sfaxien (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Sahel at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.65 · 31 matches

CS Sfaxien away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.78 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Sahel attack 1.00 + CS Sfaxien defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.89

CS Sfaxien attack 0.95 + ES Sahel defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

ES Sahel scores more
35%
level
34%
CS Sfaxien scores more
30%

ES Sahel at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "ES Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
A. Ajjal← A. Ajjal
25'
H. Baccar
34'
45+5'
M. Nasraoui
46'
G. Naouali← N. Hnid
46'
C. Gbo← F. Ben Choug
46'
A. Saidi← A. Saidi
59'
W. KarouiGoal Disallowed
64'
Y. Chamakhi← Y. Chamakhi
70'
H. H. Haj← M. Aidi
77'
H. Dagdoug← I. Souissi
87'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #202: ES Sahel 0–1 CS Sfaxien

CS Sfaxien beat ES Sahel 1-0 in League #202 on May 15, 2025.

Goals: H. Baccar (25').

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Sousse in Sūsah.