ES Hammam-Sousse 0–1 Sporting Ben Arous

ES Hammam-Sousse

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Ben Arous

10/11/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

ES Hammam-Sousse56%

×Draw27%

Sporting Ben Arous17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ES Hammam-SousseExpected goals in this matchSporting Ben Arous

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.66

ES Hammam-Sousse

1.44

Sporting Ben Arous

0.66

ES Hammam-Sousse creates 118% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 46 away

1.62

creates per match

0.54

0.78

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

ES Hammam-Sousse

1.62

Sporting Ben Arous

0.54

allows per match

ES Hammam-Sousse

0.78

Sporting Ben Arous

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ES Hammam-Sousse+0.00on par

Sporting Ben Arous+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Hammam-Sousse ↓

Sporting Ben Arous →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

ES Hammam-Sousse or draw

83%

ES Hammam-Sousse or Sporting Ben Arous

73%

Draw or Sporting Ben Arous

44%

Winning margin

ES Hammam-Sousse wins by 2+

28%

Sporting Ben Arous wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

ES Hammam-Sousse 1+ goals

76%

ES Hammam-Sousse 2+ goals

42%

ES Hammam-Sousse 3+ goals

18%

Sporting Ben Arous 1+ goals

48%

Sporting Ben Arous 2+ goals

14%

Sporting Ben Arous 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

ES Hammam-Sousse (draw refunded)

77%

Sporting Ben Arous (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Hammam-Sousse at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.78 · 45 matches

Sporting Ben Arous away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Hammam-Sousse attack 1.62 + Sporting Ben Arous defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sporting Ben Arous attack 0.54 + ES Hammam-Sousse defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

ES Hammam-Sousse scores more

56%

level

27%

Sporting Ben Arous scores more

17%

ES Hammam-Sousse at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "ES Hammam-Sousse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff