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ES Hammam-Sousse vs Radès — Ligue 2 2020

ES Hammam-Sousse
ES Hammam-Sousse
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Radès
Radès
I. Dridi 80'
Z. Laabidi 88'
3/3/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 17Stade Municipale Bou Ali-Lahouar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

ES Hammam-Sousse58%
×Draw25%
Radès17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Hammam-Sousse
1.62
Radès
0.76

ES Hammam-Sousse creates 113% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 47 away

creates per match

ES Hammam-Sousse
1.62
Radès
0.74

allows per match

ES Hammam-Sousse
0.78
Radès
1.62

finishing

ES Hammam-Sousse+0.00on par
Radès+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Hammam-Sousse ↓

Radès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

ES Hammam-Sousse or draw
83%
ES Hammam-Sousse or Radès
75%
Draw or Radès
42%

Winning margin

ES Hammam-Sousse wins by 2+
31%
Radès wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

ES Hammam-Sousse 1+ goals
80%
ES Hammam-Sousse 2+ goals
48%
ES Hammam-Sousse 3+ goals
22%
Radès 1+ goals
53%
Radès 2+ goals
18%
Radès 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

ES Hammam-Sousse (draw refunded)
77%
Radès (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Hammam-Sousse at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.78 · 45 matches

Radès away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.62 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Hammam-Sousse attack 1.62 + Radès defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.62

Radès attack 0.74 + ES Hammam-Sousse defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

ES Hammam-Sousse scores more
58%
level
25%
Radès scores more
17%

ES Hammam-Sousse at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "ES Hammam-Sousse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

80'
I. Dridi
88'
Z. Laabidi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: ES Hammam-Sousse 1–1 Radès

ES Hammam-Sousse and Radès drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on March 3, 2024.

Goals: I. Dridi (80'), Z. Laabidi (88').

The match was played at Stade Municipale Bou Ali-Lahouar in Hammam-Sousse.