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ES Hammam-Sousse vs AS Agareb — Ligue 2 2020

ES Hammam-Sousse
ES Hammam-Sousse
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AS Agareb
AS Agareb
1/18/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

ES Hammam-Sousse59%
×Draw25%
AS Agareb16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Hammam-Sousse
1.58
AS Agareb
0.68

ES Hammam-Sousse creates 132% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 26 away

creates per match

ES Hammam-Sousse
1.62
AS Agareb
0.58

allows per match

ES Hammam-Sousse
0.78
AS Agareb
1.54

finishing

ES Hammam-Sousse+0.00on par
AS Agareb+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Hammam-Sousse ↓

AS Agareb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

ES Hammam-Sousse or draw
84%
ES Hammam-Sousse or AS Agareb
75%
Draw or AS Agareb
41%

Winning margin

ES Hammam-Sousse wins by 2+
32%
AS Agareb wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

ES Hammam-Sousse 1+ goals
79%
ES Hammam-Sousse 2+ goals
47%
ES Hammam-Sousse 3+ goals
21%
AS Agareb 1+ goals
49%
AS Agareb 2+ goals
15%
AS Agareb 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

ES Hammam-Sousse (draw refunded)
79%
AS Agareb (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Hammam-Sousse at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.78 · 45 matches

AS Agareb away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Hammam-Sousse attack 1.62 + AS Agareb defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

AS Agareb attack 0.58 + ES Hammam-Sousse defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

ES Hammam-Sousse scores more
59%
level
25%
AS Agareb scores more
16%

ES Hammam-Sousse at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "ES Hammam-Sousse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ES Hammam-Sousse 3 – 0 AS Agareb

ES Hammam-Sousse beat AS Agareb 3-0 in Ligue 2 on January 18, 2026.