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ES Hammam-Sousse vs Ariana — Ligue 2 2020

ES Hammam-Sousse
ES Hammam-Sousse
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ariana
Ariana
2/9/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 14Stade Municipale Bou Ali-Lahouar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

ES Hammam-Sousse57%
×Draw24%
Ariana19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Hammam-Sousse
1.67
Ariana
0.83

ES Hammam-Sousse creates 101% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 38 away

creates per match

ES Hammam-Sousse
1.62
Ariana
0.89

allows per match

ES Hammam-Sousse
0.78
Ariana
1.71

finishing

ES Hammam-Sousse+0.00on par
Ariana+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Hammam-Sousse ↓

Ariana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

ES Hammam-Sousse or draw
81%
ES Hammam-Sousse or Ariana
76%
Draw or Ariana
43%

Winning margin

ES Hammam-Sousse wins by 2+
32%
Ariana wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

ES Hammam-Sousse 1+ goals
81%
ES Hammam-Sousse 2+ goals
50%
ES Hammam-Sousse 3+ goals
23%
Ariana 1+ goals
56%
Ariana 2+ goals
20%
Ariana 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

ES Hammam-Sousse (draw refunded)
76%
Ariana (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Hammam-Sousse at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.78 · 45 matches

Ariana away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Hammam-Sousse attack 1.62 + Ariana defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

Ariana attack 0.89 + ES Hammam-Sousse defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

ES Hammam-Sousse scores more
57%
level
24%
Ariana scores more
19%

ES Hammam-Sousse at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "ES Hammam-Sousse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ES Hammam-Sousse vs Ariana

Ariana beat ES Hammam-Sousse 2-0 in Ligue 2 on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipale Bou Ali-Lahouar in Hammam-Sousse.