Erzurumspor FK 2–4 Pendikspor: Result & Stats

Erzurumspor FK

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Pendikspor

C. Sylla 12'

E. Tozlu 3' (pen)

2 Y. del Valle 90+12'

B. Karadeniz 69', 47'

H. Kılıç 17' (pen)

3/6/2025

1. Lig · Round 28Aktepe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Erzurumspor FK45%

×Draw26%

Pendikspor30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Erzurumspor FKExpected goals in this matchPendikspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.18

Erzurumspor FK

1.50

Pendikspor

1.18

Erzurumspor FK creates 27% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 57 away

1.64

creates per match

1.42

0.94

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK

1.64

Pendikspor

1.42

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK

0.94

Pendikspor

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Pendikspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

Pendikspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw

70%

Erzurumspor FK or Pendikspor

74%

Draw or Pendikspor

55%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

22%

Pendikspor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

78%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

44%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

19%

Pendikspor 1+ goals

69%

Pendikspor 2+ goals

33%

Pendikspor 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

60%

Pendikspor (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 108 matches

Pendikspor away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.35 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.64 + Pendikspor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.50

Pendikspor attack 1.42 + Erzurumspor FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more

45%

level

26%

Pendikspor scores more

30%

Erzurumspor FK at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

60

B. Karadeniz

Pendikspor · M

8.5

Match Events

-5'

Alpaslan Öztürk

3'

E. TozluPenalty

11'

Eren Tozlu

12'

C. Sylla↳ C. Hanalp

15'

Mustafa Yumlu

17'

H. KılıçPenalty

26'

G. Akkan← T. Teklić

45+4'

Giovanni Crociata

47'

B. Karadeniz

61'

M. Taş← C. Sylla

62'

Y. Kırtay← S. Sarıkaya

63'

65'

68'

69'

71'

E. Sayhan← J. Topalli

77'

Đ. Denić← H. Kılıç

80'

F. Özhan← A. Okechukwu

82'

Guram GiorbelidzePenalty cancelled

83'

84'

86'

87'

90+11'

Muhammed Furkan Özhan

90+12'

Yonathan Del ValleMissed penalty

90'

Bekir Karadeniz

90+11'

Efe SayhanPenalty confirmed

90+12'

2 Y. del Valle

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ErzurumsporPendikspor

Overview

31%Possession69%

8Total Shots15

3Corners8

18Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots15

4On Target10

2Off Target4

2Blocked1

6Inside Box10

2Outside Box5

Passing

31%Possession69%

218Total Passes491

143Accurate Passes423

66%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls16

5Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

3Offsides4

1. Lig: Erzurumspor FK 2–4 Pendikspor

Pendikspor beat Erzurumspor FK 4-2 in 1. Lig on March 6, 2025.

Goals: E. Tozlu (3' pen), C. Sylla (12'), H. Kılıç (17' pen), B. Karadeniz (47', 69'), 2 Y. del Valle (90+12').

Pendikspor controlled possession (69%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at Aktepe Stadı in Ankara.

Erzurumspor FK vs Pendikspor — 1. Lig 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1. Lig: Erzurumspor FK 2–4 Pendikspor