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Erzurumspor FK vs Nazilli Spor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nazilli Spor
Nazilli Spor
10/27/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundKazım Karabekir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Erzurumspor FK62%
×Draw19%
Nazilli Spor19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzurumspor FK
2.46
Nazilli Spor
1.32

Erzurumspor FK creates 86% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK
2.43
Nazilli Spor
1.00

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK
1.64
Nazilli Spor
2.50

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par
Nazilli Spor+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

Nazilli Spor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw
81%
Erzurumspor FK or Nazilli Spor
81%
Draw or Nazilli Spor
38%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
40%
Nazilli Spor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
91%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
70%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
44%
Nazilli Spor 1+ goals
73%
Nazilli Spor 2+ goals
38%
Nazilli Spor 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
76%
Nazilli Spor (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Nazilli Spor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 2.43 + Nazilli Spor defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.46

Nazilli Spor attack 1.00 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more
62%
level
19%
Nazilli Spor scores more
19%

Erzurumspor FK at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erzurumspor FK vs Nazilli Spor

Erzurumspor FK and Nazilli Spor drew 0-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu in Erzurum.