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Erzurumspor FK vs Karaköprü Belediyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
FT
6 – 2
HT: 4 – 0
Karaköprü Belediyespor
Karaköprü Belediyespor
11/3/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundKazım Karabekir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Erzurumspor FK59%
×Draw19%
Karaköprü Belediyespor22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzurumspor FK
2.52
Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.52

Erzurumspor FK creates 66% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK
2.43
Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.40

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK
1.64
Karaköprü Belediyespor
2.60

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par
Karaköprü Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

Karaköprü Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw
78%
Erzurumspor FK or Karaköprü Belediyespor
81%
Draw or Karaköprü Belediyespor
41%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
38%
Karaköprü Belediyespor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
92%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
71%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
45%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 1+ goals
78%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 2+ goals
45%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
72%
Karaköprü Belediyespor (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Karaköprü Belediyespor away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 2.43 + Karaköprü Belediyespor defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.52

Karaköprü Belediyespor attack 1.40 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more
59%
level
19%
Karaköprü Belediyespor scores more
22%

Erzurumspor FK at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Erzurumspor FK 6–2 Karaköprü Belediyespor

Erzurumspor FK beat Karaköprü Belediyespor 6-2 in Türkiye Kupası on November 3, 2020.

The match was played at Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu in Erzurum.