Erzurumspor FK 2–1 Iğdır FK: Result & Stats

Erzurumspor FK

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Iğdır FK

B. Keser 80'

M. Rodriguez 45'

F. Loshaj 10'

4/4/2026

1. Lig · Round 33Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Erzurumspor FK45%

×Draw26%

Iğdır FK29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Erzurumspor FKExpected goals in this matchIğdır FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.14

Erzurumspor FK

1.49

Iğdır FK

1.14

Erzurumspor FK creates 31% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 38 away

1.64

creates per match

1.34

0.94

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK

1.64

Iğdır FK

1.34

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK

0.94

Iğdır FK

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Iğdır FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

Iğdır FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw

71%

Erzurumspor FK or Iğdır FK

74%

Draw or Iğdır FK

55%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

22%

Iğdır FK wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

77%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

44%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

19%

Iğdır FK 1+ goals

68%

Iğdır FK 2+ goals

32%

Iğdır FK 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

61%

Iğdır FK (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 108 matches

Iğdır FK away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.64 + Iğdır FK defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.49

Iğdır FK attack 1.34 + Erzurumspor FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more

45%

level

26%

Iğdır FK scores more

29%

Erzurumspor FK at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

65

M. Rodriguez

Erzurumspor FK · M

8.3

Match Events

10'

F. Loshaj

12'

Ahmet EnginGoal confirmed

37'

Orhan Ovacıklı

43'

Moryke Fofana

45'

M. Rodriguez↳ O. Ovacikli

48'

M. Fettahoglu← S. Akgun

60'

G. Bruno← R. Mendes

70'

A. Kabak← G. Crociata

70'

C. Sylla← M. Rodriguez

74'

S. Asan← A. Engin

75'

D. Erdogan← F. Loshaj

80'

Benhur Keser

80'

B. Keser

84'

M. Yumlu← B. Keser

84'

Fernando Andrade← E. Tozlu

90'

A. Yasar← G. Kaya

90+1'

A. Ozturk← A. R. Cankaya

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ErzurumsporIğdır

Overview

63%Possession37%

14Total Shots9

1.40Expected Goals (xG)0.69

5Corners2

7Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots9

8On Target2

4Off Target5

2Blocked2

7Inside Box5

7Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

559Total Passes321

496Accurate Passes251

89%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

7Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1