Erzurumspor FK 2–2 Fatih Karagümrük: Result & Stats

Erzurumspor FK

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Fatih Karagümrük

3/3/2021

League #203 · Round 28Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Erzurumspor FK38%

×Draw24%

Fatih Karagümrük38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Erzurumspor FKExpected goals in this matchFatih Karagümrük

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.51

Erzurumspor FK

1.52

Fatih Karagümrük

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.25

creates per match

1.40

1.63

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK

1.25

Fatih Karagümrük

1.40

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK

1.63

Fatih Karagümrük

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

Fatih Karagümrük →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw

62%

Erzurumspor FK or Fatih Karagümrük

76%

Draw or Fatih Karagümrük

62%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

18%

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

78%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

45%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

20%

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals

78%

Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals

44%

Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

50%

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Fatih Karagümrük away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.25 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.40 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more

38%

level

24%

Fatih Karagümrük scores more

38%

Erzurumspor FK at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff