Erzurumspor FK 2–1 Çorum FK: Result & Stats

Erzurumspor FK

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Çorum FK

M. Yumlu 90+6'

C. Hanalp 50'

T. Verheydt 86'

4/28/2024

1. Lig · Round 32Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Erzurumspor FK43%

×Draw26%

Çorum FK31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Erzurumspor FKExpected goals in this matchÇorum FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.15

Erzurumspor FK

1.41

Çorum FK

1.15

Erzurumspor FK creates 23% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 57 away

1.64

creates per match

1.35

0.94

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK

1.64

Çorum FK

1.35

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK

0.94

Çorum FK

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Çorum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

Çorum FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw

69%

Erzurumspor FK or Çorum FK

74%

Draw or Çorum FK

57%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

20%

Çorum FK wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

76%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

41%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

17%

Çorum FK 1+ goals

68%

Çorum FK 2+ goals

32%

Çorum FK 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

58%

Çorum FK (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 108 matches

Çorum FK away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.64 + Çorum FK defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.41

Çorum FK attack 1.35 + Erzurumspor FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more

43%

level

26%

Çorum FK scores more

31%

Erzurumspor FK at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

H. Akınay

Çorum FK · G

7.9

Match Events

24'

Ferhat Yazgan

35'

Thomas Verheydt

46'

C. Hanalp← S. Koç

46'

M. Rosheuvel← F. Özhan

50'

C. Hanalp↳ M. Rosheuvel

54'

Yakup Kirtay

57'

Ahmet İlhan ÖzekPenalty cancelled

61'

68'

69'

72'

74'

G. Karadeniz← K. Kalafat

74'

E. Aydın← S. Kaya

83'

A. Akkaynak← H. Barış

83'

S. Luş← A. Özek

86'

T. Verheydt↳ S. Luş

88'

A. Özfesli← E. Tozlu

90+7'

Mehmet Göktuğ Bakırbaş

90+5'

Atakan Akkaynak

90+4'

E. Özdemir← Ö. Sert

90+6'

M. Yumlu↳ A. Özfesli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ErzurumsporÇorum

Overview

42%Possession58%

17Total Shots8

5Corners5

16Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots8

7On Target3

6Off Target1

4Blocked4

13Inside Box6

4Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

265Total Passes388

191Accurate Passes315

72%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls9

4Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1