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Erzurumspor FK vs Beşiktaş — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş
1/15/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 8th FinalsKazım Karabekir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Erzurumspor FK43%
×Draw23%
Beşiktaş33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzurumspor FK
1.72
Beşiktaş
1.48

Erzurumspor FK creates 16% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK
2.43
Beşiktaş
1.33

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK
1.64
Beşiktaş
1.00

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par
Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

Beşiktaş →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw
67%
Erzurumspor FK or Beşiktaş
77%
Draw or Beşiktaş
57%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
23%
Beşiktaş wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
82%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
51%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
25%
Beşiktaş 1+ goals
77%
Beşiktaş 2+ goals
43%
Beşiktaş 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
57%
Beşiktaş (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Beşiktaş away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 2.43 + Beşiktaş defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Beşiktaş attack 1.33 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more
43%
level
23%
Beşiktaş scores more
33%

Erzurumspor FK at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erzurumspor FK vs Beşiktaş

Erzurumspor FK beat Beşiktaş 3-2 in Türkiye Kupası on January 15, 2020.

The match was played at Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu in Erzurum.