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Erzurumspor FK vs Adana Demirspor — 1. Lig 2018

Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Adana Demirspor
Adana Demirspor
7/1/20201. Lig1. Lig · Round 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Erzurumspor FK55%
×Draw23%
Adana Demirspor22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzurumspor FK
1.85
Adana Demirspor
1.08

Erzurumspor FK creates 71% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 72 away

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK
1.64
Adana Demirspor
1.22

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK
0.94
Adana Demirspor
2.07

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par
Adana Demirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

Adana Demirspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw
78%
Erzurumspor FK or Adana Demirspor
77%
Draw or Adana Demirspor
45%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
32%
Adana Demirspor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
84%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
55%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
28%
Adana Demirspor 1+ goals
66%
Adana Demirspor 2+ goals
29%
Adana Demirspor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
72%
Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 108 matches

Adana Demirspor away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.64 + Adana Demirspor defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.85

Adana Demirspor attack 1.22 + Erzurumspor FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more
55%
level
23%
Adana Demirspor scores more
22%

Erzurumspor FK at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Erzurumspor FK 1–2 Adana Demirspor

Adana Demirspor beat Erzurumspor FK 2-1 in 1. Lig on July 1, 2020.