Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Erzurumspor FK vs 24 Erzincanspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
24 Erzincanspor
24 Erzincanspor
12/6/2023Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundKazım Karabekir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Erzurumspor FK60%
×Draw19%
24 Erzincanspor21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzurumspor FK
2.36
24 Erzincanspor
1.32

Erzurumspor FK creates 79% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK
2.43
24 Erzincanspor
1.00

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK
1.64
24 Erzincanspor
2.29

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par
24 Erzincanspor+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

24 Erzincanspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw
79%
Erzurumspor FK or 24 Erzincanspor
81%
Draw or 24 Erzincanspor
40%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
38%
24 Erzincanspor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
90%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
68%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
41%
24 Erzincanspor 1+ goals
73%
24 Erzincanspor 2+ goals
38%
24 Erzincanspor 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
75%
24 Erzincanspor (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

24 Erzincanspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 2.43 + 24 Erzincanspor defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.36

24 Erzincanspor attack 1.00 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more
60%
level
19%
24 Erzincanspor scores more
21%

Erzurumspor FK at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Erzurumspor FK 0–3 24 Erzincanspor

24 Erzincanspor beat Erzurumspor FK 3-0 in Türkiye Kupası on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu in Erzurum.