Erzgebirge Aue 1–1 Energie Cottbus: Result & Stats

Erzgebirge Aue

1 – 1

Energie Cottbus

1/13/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Erzgebirge Aue33%

×Draw20%

Energie Cottbus48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Erzgebirge AueExpected goals in this matchEnergie Cottbus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

2.39

Erzgebirge Aue

1.97

Energie Cottbus

2.39

Energie Cottbus creates 21% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

2.55

creates per match

3.60

1.18

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Erzgebirge Aue

2.55

Energie Cottbus

3.60

allows per match

Erzgebirge Aue

1.18

Energie Cottbus

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erzgebirge Aue+0.00on par

Energie Cottbus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzgebirge Aue ↓

Energie Cottbus →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Erzgebirge Aue or draw

52%

Erzgebirge Aue or Energie Cottbus

80%

Draw or Energie Cottbus

67%

Winning margin

Erzgebirge Aue wins by 2+

17%

Energie Cottbus wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Erzgebirge Aue 1+ goals

86%

Erzgebirge Aue 2+ goals

58%

Erzgebirge Aue 3+ goals

31%

Energie Cottbus 1+ goals

91%

Energie Cottbus 2+ goals

69%

Energie Cottbus 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Erzgebirge Aue (draw refunded)

41%

Energie Cottbus (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Erzgebirge Aue at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Energie Cottbus away — creates 3.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Erzgebirge Aue attack 2.55 + Energie Cottbus defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.97

Energie Cottbus attack 3.60 + Erzgebirge Aue defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 2.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Erzgebirge Aue scores more

33%

level

20%

Energie Cottbus scores more

48%

Energie Cottbus at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Energie Cottbus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff