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Erzgebirge Aue U19 vs Kickers Offenbach U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Erzgebirge Aue U19
Erzgebirge Aue U19
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kickers Offenbach U19
Kickers Offenbach U19
5/9/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 12Erzgebirgsstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Erzgebirge Aue U1962%
×Draw19%
Kickers Offenbach U1919%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzgebirge Aue U19
2.46
Kickers Offenbach U19
1.31

Erzgebirge Aue U19 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 47 away

creates per match

Erzgebirge Aue U19
1.85
Kickers Offenbach U19
0.98

allows per match

Erzgebirge Aue U19
1.65
Kickers Offenbach U19
3.06

finishing

Erzgebirge Aue U19+0.00on par
Kickers Offenbach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzgebirge Aue U19 ↓

Kickers Offenbach U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Erzgebirge Aue U19 or draw
81%
Erzgebirge Aue U19 or Kickers Offenbach U19
81%
Draw or Kickers Offenbach U19
38%

Winning margin

Erzgebirge Aue U19 wins by 2+
41%
Kickers Offenbach U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Erzgebirge Aue U19 1+ goals
91%
Erzgebirge Aue U19 2+ goals
70%
Erzgebirge Aue U19 3+ goals
44%
Kickers Offenbach U19 1+ goals
73%
Kickers Offenbach U19 2+ goals
38%
Kickers Offenbach U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Erzgebirge Aue U19 (draw refunded)
76%
Kickers Offenbach U19 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzgebirge Aue U19 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

Kickers Offenbach U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 3.06 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzgebirge Aue U19 attack 1.85 + Kickers Offenbach U19 defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.46

Kickers Offenbach U19 attack 0.98 + Erzgebirge Aue U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Erzgebirge Aue U19 scores more
62%
level
19%
Kickers Offenbach U19 scores more
19%

Erzgebirge Aue U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Erzgebirge Aue U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Erzgebirge
Kickers
P. Hauck
Manager: P. Hauck
S. Stuppia
Manager: S. Stuppia

Match Recap: Erzgebirge Aue U19 vs Kickers Offenbach U19

Erzgebirge Aue U19 and Kickers Offenbach U19 drew 0-0 in U19 Bundesliga on May 9, 2026.

The match was played at Erzgebirgsstadion in Aue.