Erzeni Shijak 1–0 Vllaznia Shkodër: Result & Stats

Erzeni Shijak

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vllaznia Shkodër

8/20/2022

Superliga · Round 1Stadiumi Niko Dovana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Erzeni Shijak29%

×Draw30%

Vllaznia Shkodër42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Erzeni ShijakExpected goals in this matchVllaznia Shkodër

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.17

Erzeni Shijak

0.92

Vllaznia Shkodër

1.17

Vllaznia Shkodër creates 27% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 128 away

0.81

creates per match

0.97

1.36

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Erzeni Shijak

0.81

Vllaznia Shkodër

0.97

allows per match

Erzeni Shijak

1.36

Vllaznia Shkodër

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par

Vllaznia Shkodër+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzeni Shijak ↓

Vllaznia Shkodër →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Erzeni Shijak or draw

58%

Erzeni Shijak or Vllaznia Shkodër

70%

Draw or Vllaznia Shkodër

71%

Winning margin

Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+

10%

Vllaznia Shkodër wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals

60%

Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals

23%

Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals

7%

Vllaznia Shkodër 1+ goals

69%

Vllaznia Shkodër 2+ goals

33%

Vllaznia Shkodër 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)

41%

Vllaznia Shkodër (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzeni Shijak at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.36 · 36 matches

Vllaznia Shkodër away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.02 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzeni Shijak attack 0.81 + Vllaznia Shkodër defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.92

Vllaznia Shkodër attack 0.97 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Erzeni Shijak scores more

29%

level

30%

Vllaznia Shkodër scores more

42%

Vllaznia Shkodër at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vllaznia Shkodër will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff