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Erzeni Shijak vs Tomori Berat — 1st Division 2019

Erzeni Shijak
Erzeni Shijak
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tomori Berat
Tomori Berat
3/19/20221st Division1st Division · Round 24Stadiumi Tofik Jashari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Erzeni Shijak47%
×Draw26%
Tomori Berat27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzeni Shijak
1.48
Tomori Berat
1.04

Erzeni Shijak creates 42% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 57 away

creates per match

Erzeni Shijak
1.19
Tomori Berat
1.02

allows per match

Erzeni Shijak
1.06
Tomori Berat
1.77

finishing

Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par
Tomori Berat+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzeni Shijak ↓

Tomori Berat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Erzeni Shijak or draw
73%
Erzeni Shijak or Tomori Berat
74%
Draw or Tomori Berat
53%

Winning margin

Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+
24%
Tomori Berat wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals
77%
Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals
43%
Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals
19%
Tomori Berat 1+ goals
65%
Tomori Berat 2+ goals
28%
Tomori Berat 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)
64%
Tomori Berat (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzeni Shijak at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.06 · 54 matches

Tomori Berat away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.77 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.19 + Tomori Berat defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tomori Berat attack 1.02 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Erzeni Shijak scores more
47%
level
26%
Tomori Berat scores more
27%

Erzeni Shijak at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Erzeni Shijak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Erzeni Shijak 2–1 Tomori Berat

Erzeni Shijak beat Tomori Berat 2-1 in 1st Division on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Tofik Jashari in Shijak.