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Erzeni Shijak vs Skenderbeu Korce — Superliga 2018

Erzeni Shijak
Erzeni Shijak
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Skenderbeu Korce
Skenderbeu Korce
9/27/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 6Arena Egnatia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Erzeni Shijak33%
×Draw29%
Skenderbeu Korce37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzeni Shijak
1.05
Skenderbeu Korce
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 109 away

creates per match

Erzeni Shijak
0.81
Skenderbeu Korce
0.89

allows per match

Erzeni Shijak
1.36
Skenderbeu Korce
1.29

finishing

Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par
Skenderbeu Korce+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzeni Shijak ↓

Skenderbeu Korce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Erzeni Shijak or draw
63%
Erzeni Shijak or Skenderbeu Korce
71%
Draw or Skenderbeu Korce
67%

Winning margin

Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+
13%
Skenderbeu Korce wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals
65%
Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals
28%
Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals
9%
Skenderbeu Korce 1+ goals
68%
Skenderbeu Korce 2+ goals
31%
Skenderbeu Korce 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)
47%
Skenderbeu Korce (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzeni Shijak at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.36 · 36 matches

Skenderbeu Korce away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.29 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzeni Shijak attack 0.81 + Skenderbeu Korce defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.05

Skenderbeu Korce attack 0.89 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Erzeni Shijak scores more
33%
level
29%
Skenderbeu Korce scores more
37%

Skenderbeu Korce at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Skenderbeu Korce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Erzeni Shijak 1–2 Skenderbeu Korce

Skenderbeu Korce beat Erzeni Shijak 2-1 in Superliga on September 27, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Egnatia in Rrogozhinë.