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Erzeni Shijak vs Oriku — 1st Division 2019

Erzeni Shijak
Erzeni Shijak
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Oriku
Oriku
2/13/20211st Division1st Division · Round 11Stadiumi Tofik Jashari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Erzeni Shijak48%
×Draw30%
Oriku22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzeni Shijak
1.23
Oriku
0.73

Erzeni Shijak creates 68% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 40 away

creates per match

Erzeni Shijak
1.19
Oriku
0.40

allows per match

Erzeni Shijak
1.06
Oriku
1.27

finishing

Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par
Oriku+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzeni Shijak ↓

Oriku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Erzeni Shijak or draw
78%
Erzeni Shijak or Oriku
70%
Draw or Oriku
52%

Winning margin

Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+
22%
Oriku wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals
71%
Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals
35%
Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals
13%
Oriku 1+ goals
52%
Oriku 2+ goals
17%
Oriku 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)
69%
Oriku (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzeni Shijak at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.06 · 54 matches

Oriku away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.27 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.19 + Oriku defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Oriku attack 0.40 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Erzeni Shijak scores more
48%
level
30%
Oriku scores more
22%

Erzeni Shijak at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Erzeni Shijak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erzeni Shijak vs Oriku

Erzeni Shijak beat Oriku 2-0 in 1st Division on February 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Tofik Jashari in Shijak.