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Erzeni Shijak vs Laci — Superliga 2018

Erzeni Shijak
Erzeni Shijak
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Laci
Laci
2/24/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 23Stadiumi Niko Dovana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Erzeni Shijak29%
×Draw30%
Laci41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzeni Shijak
0.91
Laci
1.13

Laci creates 24% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 126 away

creates per match

Erzeni Shijak
0.81
Laci
0.90

allows per match

Erzeni Shijak
1.36
Laci
1.00

finishing

Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par
Laci+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzeni Shijak ↓

Laci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Erzeni Shijak or draw
59%
Erzeni Shijak or Laci
70%
Draw or Laci
71%

Winning margin

Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+
10%
Laci wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals
60%
Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals
23%
Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals
6%
Laci 1+ goals
68%
Laci 2+ goals
31%
Laci 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)
42%
Laci (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzeni Shijak at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.36 · 36 matches

Laci away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.00 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzeni Shijak attack 0.81 + Laci defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Laci attack 0.90 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Erzeni Shijak scores more
29%
level
30%
Laci scores more
41%

Laci at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Laci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Erzeni Shijak 1–1 Laci

Erzeni Shijak and Laci drew 1-1 in Superliga on February 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Niko Dovana in Durrës.