Erzeni Shijak 0–3 FK Kukesi: Result & Stats

Erzeni Shijak

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

FK Kukesi

3/9/2025

1st Division · Round 27Stadiumi Redi Maloku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Erzeni Shijak51%

×Draw27%

FK Kukesi22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Erzeni ShijakExpected goals in this matchFK Kukesi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.86

Erzeni Shijak

1.46

FK Kukesi

0.86

Erzeni Shijak creates 70% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 35 away

1.19

creates per match

0.66

1.06

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Erzeni Shijak

1.19

FK Kukesi

0.66

allows per match

Erzeni Shijak

1.06

FK Kukesi

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par

FK Kukesi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzeni Shijak ↓

FK Kukesi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Erzeni Shijak or draw

78%

Erzeni Shijak or FK Kukesi

73%

Draw or FK Kukesi

49%

Winning margin

Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+

26%

FK Kukesi wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals

77%

Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals

43%

Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals

18%

FK Kukesi 1+ goals

58%

FK Kukesi 2+ goals

21%

FK Kukesi 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)

70%

FK Kukesi (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzeni Shijak at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.06 · 54 matches

FK Kukesi away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.74 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.19 + FK Kukesi defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.46

FK Kukesi attack 0.66 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Erzeni Shijak scores more

51%

level

27%

FK Kukesi scores more

22%

Erzeni Shijak at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Erzeni Shijak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff