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Erzeni Shijak vs FK Kukesi — Superliga 2018

Erzeni Shijak
Erzeni Shijak
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FK Kukesi
FK Kukesi
12/10/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 16Arena Egnatia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Erzeni Shijak31%
×Draw28%
FK Kukesi42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzeni Shijak
1.06
FK Kukesi
1.29

FK Kukesi creates 22% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 108 away

creates per match

Erzeni Shijak
0.81
FK Kukesi
1.22

allows per match

Erzeni Shijak
1.36
FK Kukesi
1.30

finishing

Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par
FK Kukesi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzeni Shijak ↓

FK Kukesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Erzeni Shijak or draw
58%
Erzeni Shijak or FK Kukesi
72%
Draw or FK Kukesi
69%

Winning margin

Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+
12%
FK Kukesi wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals
65%
Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals
29%
Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals
9%
FK Kukesi 1+ goals
72%
FK Kukesi 2+ goals
37%
FK Kukesi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)
42%
FK Kukesi (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzeni Shijak at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.36 · 36 matches

FK Kukesi away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.30 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzeni Shijak attack 0.81 + FK Kukesi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.06

FK Kukesi attack 1.22 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Erzeni Shijak scores more
31%
level
28%
FK Kukesi scores more
42%

FK Kukesi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FK Kukesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Erzeni Shijak 0–0 FK Kukesi

Erzeni Shijak and FK Kukesi drew 0-0 in Superliga on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Egnatia in Rrogozhinë.