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Erzeni Shijak vs Dinamo Tirana — Superliga 2018

Erzeni Shijak
Erzeni Shijak
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Tirana
Dinamo Tirana
9/17/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 4Arena Egnatia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Erzeni Shijak33%
×Draw29%
Dinamo Tirana38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzeni Shijak
1.06
Dinamo Tirana
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 76 away

creates per match

Erzeni Shijak
0.81
Dinamo Tirana
0.93

allows per match

Erzeni Shijak
1.36
Dinamo Tirana
1.30

finishing

Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par
Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzeni Shijak ↓

Dinamo Tirana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Erzeni Shijak or draw
62%
Erzeni Shijak or Dinamo Tirana
71%
Draw or Dinamo Tirana
67%

Winning margin

Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+
13%
Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals
65%
Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals
29%
Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals
9%
Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals
68%
Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals
32%
Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)
47%
Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzeni Shijak at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.36 · 36 matches

Dinamo Tirana away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.30 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzeni Shijak attack 0.81 + Dinamo Tirana defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.06

Dinamo Tirana attack 0.93 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Erzeni Shijak scores more
33%
level
29%
Dinamo Tirana scores more
38%

Dinamo Tirana at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dinamo Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erzeni Shijak vs Dinamo Tirana

Erzeni Shijak beat Dinamo Tirana 2-1 in Superliga on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Egnatia in Rrogozhinë.