Erpeldange 1–3 Schifflange: Result & Stats | Cup

Erpeldange

1 – 3

Schifflange

10/18/2020

Cup · 2nd RoundStadion an der Trell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Erpeldange20%

×Draw18%

Schifflange63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ErpeldangeExpected goals in this matchSchifflange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

2.71

Erpeldange

1.49

Schifflange

2.71

Schifflange creates 82% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.60

creates per match

2.63

2.80

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Erpeldange

1.60

Schifflange

2.63

allows per match

Erpeldange

2.80

Schifflange

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erpeldange+0.00on par

Schifflange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erpeldange ↓

Schifflange →

0–02%

0–14%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–45%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Erpeldange or draw

37%

Erpeldange or Schifflange

82%

Draw or Schifflange

80%

Winning margin

Erpeldange wins by 2+

Schifflange wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Erpeldange 1+ goals

77%

Erpeldange 2+ goals

44%

Erpeldange 3+ goals

19%

Schifflange 1+ goals

93%

Schifflange 2+ goals

75%

Schifflange 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Erpeldange (draw refunded)

24%

Schifflange (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Erpeldange at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Schifflange away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Erpeldange attack 1.60 + Schifflange defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.49

Schifflange attack 2.63 + Erpeldange defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Erpeldange scores more

20%

level

18%

Schifflange scores more

63%

Schifflange at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Schifflange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff