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Erlbach vs Gundelfingen — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Erlbach
Erlbach
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gundelfingen
Gundelfingen
8/25/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 8Waldstadion Erlbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Erlbach51%
×Draw26%
Gundelfingen23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erlbach
1.48
Gundelfingen
0.89

Erlbach creates 66% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 50 away

creates per match

Erlbach
1.43
Gundelfingen
1.12

allows per match

Erlbach
0.66
Gundelfingen
1.54

finishing

Erlbach+0.00on par
Gundelfingen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erlbach ↓

Gundelfingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Erlbach or draw
77%
Erlbach or Gundelfingen
74%
Draw or Gundelfingen
49%

Winning margin

Erlbach wins by 2+
26%
Gundelfingen wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Erlbach 1+ goals
77%
Erlbach 2+ goals
43%
Erlbach 3+ goals
19%
Gundelfingen 1+ goals
59%
Gundelfingen 2+ goals
22%
Gundelfingen 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Erlbach (draw refunded)
69%
Gundelfingen (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erlbach at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.66 · 67 matches

Gundelfingen away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.54 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erlbach attack 1.43 + Gundelfingen defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.48

Gundelfingen attack 1.12 + Erlbach defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Erlbach scores more
51%
level
26%
Gundelfingen scores more
23%

Erlbach at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Erlbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erlbach vs Gundelfingen

Erlbach beat Gundelfingen 3-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on August 25, 2023.

The match was played at Waldstadion Erlbach in Erlbach.