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Erlbach vs Garching — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Erlbach
Erlbach
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Garching
Garching
8/4/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 4Waldstadion Erlbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Erlbach58%
×Draw23%
Garching19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erlbach
1.82
Garching
0.92

Erlbach creates 98% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 34 away

creates per match

Erlbach
1.43
Garching
1.18

allows per match

Erlbach
0.66
Garching
2.21

finishing

Erlbach+0.00on par
Garching+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erlbach ↓

Garching →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Erlbach or draw
81%
Erlbach or Garching
77%
Draw or Garching
42%

Winning margin

Erlbach wins by 2+
34%
Garching wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Erlbach 1+ goals
84%
Erlbach 2+ goals
54%
Erlbach 3+ goals
27%
Garching 1+ goals
60%
Garching 2+ goals
23%
Garching 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Erlbach (draw refunded)
76%
Garching (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erlbach at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.66 · 67 matches

Garching away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erlbach attack 1.43 + Garching defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.82

Garching attack 1.18 + Erlbach defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Erlbach scores more
58%
level
23%
Garching scores more
19%

Erlbach at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Erlbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erlbach vs Garching

Erlbach beat Garching 2-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on August 4, 2023.

The match was played at Waldstadion Erlbach in Erlbach.