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Erkenschwick vs SG Wattenscheid 09 — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Erkenschwick
Erkenschwick
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
SG Wattenscheid 09
SG Wattenscheid 09
3/17/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 23Stimberg-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Erkenschwick36%
×Draw23%
SG Wattenscheid 0941%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erkenschwick
1.60
SG Wattenscheid 09
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 70 away

creates per match

Erkenschwick
1.69
SG Wattenscheid 09
1.76

allows per match

Erkenschwick
1.71
SG Wattenscheid 09
1.51

finishing

Erkenschwick+0.00on par
SG Wattenscheid 09+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erkenschwick ↓

SG Wattenscheid 09 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Erkenschwick or draw
59%
Erkenschwick or SG Wattenscheid 09
77%
Draw or SG Wattenscheid 09
64%

Winning margin

Erkenschwick wins by 2+
17%
SG Wattenscheid 09 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Erkenschwick 1+ goals
80%
Erkenschwick 2+ goals
47%
Erkenschwick 3+ goals
22%
SG Wattenscheid 09 1+ goals
82%
SG Wattenscheid 09 2+ goals
52%
SG Wattenscheid 09 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Erkenschwick (draw refunded)
46%
SG Wattenscheid 09 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erkenschwick at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

SG Wattenscheid 09 away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.51 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erkenschwick attack 1.69 + SG Wattenscheid 09 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.60

SG Wattenscheid 09 attack 1.76 + Erkenschwick defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Erkenschwick scores more
36%
level
23%
SG Wattenscheid 09 scores more
41%

SG Wattenscheid 09 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SG Wattenscheid 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Erkenschwick 3–2 SG Wattenscheid 09

Erkenschwick beat SG Wattenscheid 09 3-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stimberg-Stadion in Oer-Erkenschwick.