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Erkenschwick vs Eintracht Rheine — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Erkenschwick
Erkenschwick
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Eintracht Rheine
Eintracht Rheine
11/17/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 15Kunstrasenplatz Stimbergstrasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Erkenschwick46%
×Draw22%
Eintracht Rheine33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erkenschwick
1.96
Eintracht Rheine
1.63

Erkenschwick creates 20% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 89 away

creates per match

Erkenschwick
1.69
Eintracht Rheine
1.54

allows per match

Erkenschwick
1.71
Eintracht Rheine
2.22

finishing

Erkenschwick+0.00on par
Eintracht Rheine+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erkenschwick ↓

Eintracht Rheine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Erkenschwick or draw
67%
Erkenschwick or Eintracht Rheine
78%
Draw or Eintracht Rheine
54%

Winning margin

Erkenschwick wins by 2+
25%
Eintracht Rheine wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Erkenschwick 1+ goals
86%
Erkenschwick 2+ goals
58%
Erkenschwick 3+ goals
31%
Eintracht Rheine 1+ goals
80%
Eintracht Rheine 2+ goals
48%
Eintracht Rheine 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Erkenschwick (draw refunded)
58%
Eintracht Rheine (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erkenschwick at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

Eintracht Rheine away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.22 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erkenschwick attack 1.69 + Eintracht Rheine defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.96

Eintracht Rheine attack 1.54 + Erkenschwick defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Erkenschwick scores more
46%
level
22%
Eintracht Rheine scores more
33%

Erkenschwick at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Erkenschwick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erkenschwick vs Eintracht Rheine

Erkenschwick beat Eintracht Rheine 2-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Stimbergstrasse in Oer-Erkenschwick.