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Erkenschwick vs Concordia Wiemelhausen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Erkenschwick
Erkenschwick
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Concordia Wiemelhausen
Concordia Wiemelhausen
F. Fili 17'
P. Zippel 73'
D. Gumpert 27'
12/8/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 19Kunstrasenplatz Stimbergstrasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Erkenschwick60%
×Draw18%
Concordia Wiemelhausen22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erkenschwick
2.56
Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.50

Erkenschwick creates 71% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 18 away

creates per match

Erkenschwick
1.69
Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.28

allows per match

Erkenschwick
1.71
Concordia Wiemelhausen
3.44

finishing

Erkenschwick+0.00on par
Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erkenschwick ↓

Concordia Wiemelhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Erkenschwick or draw
78%
Erkenschwick or Concordia Wiemelhausen
82%
Draw or Concordia Wiemelhausen
40%

Winning margin

Erkenschwick wins by 2+
39%
Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Erkenschwick 1+ goals
92%
Erkenschwick 2+ goals
72%
Erkenschwick 3+ goals
46%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals
78%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals
44%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Erkenschwick (draw refunded)
74%
Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erkenschwick at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erkenschwick attack 1.69 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.56

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 1.28 + Erkenschwick defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Erkenschwick scores more
60%
level
18%
Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more
22%

Erkenschwick at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Erkenschwick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
F. Fili
27'
D. Gumpert
73'
P. Zippel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Erkenschwick 1–2 Concordia Wiemelhausen

Concordia Wiemelhausen beat Erkenschwick 2-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on December 8, 2024.

Goals: F. Fili (17'), D. Gumpert (27'), P. Zippel (73').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Stimbergstrasse in Oer-Erkenschwick.