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Erkenschwick vs ASC Dortmund — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Erkenschwick
Erkenschwick
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ASC Dortmund
ASC Dortmund
3/3/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 21Kunstrasenplatz Stimbergstrasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Erkenschwick35%
×Draw22%
ASC Dortmund43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erkenschwick
1.63
ASC Dortmund
1.83

ASC Dortmund creates 12% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 89 away

creates per match

Erkenschwick
1.69
ASC Dortmund
1.96

allows per match

Erkenschwick
1.71
ASC Dortmund
1.57

finishing

Erkenschwick+0.00on par
ASC Dortmund+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erkenschwick ↓

ASC Dortmund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Erkenschwick or draw
57%
Erkenschwick or ASC Dortmund
78%
Draw or ASC Dortmund
65%

Winning margin

Erkenschwick wins by 2+
17%
ASC Dortmund wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Erkenschwick 1+ goals
80%
Erkenschwick 2+ goals
48%
Erkenschwick 3+ goals
22%
ASC Dortmund 1+ goals
84%
ASC Dortmund 2+ goals
54%
ASC Dortmund 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Erkenschwick (draw refunded)
45%
ASC Dortmund (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erkenschwick at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

ASC Dortmund away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.57 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erkenschwick attack 1.69 + ASC Dortmund defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.63

ASC Dortmund attack 1.96 + Erkenschwick defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Erkenschwick scores more
35%
level
22%
ASC Dortmund scores more
43%

ASC Dortmund at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ASC Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erkenschwick vs ASC Dortmund

Erkenschwick beat ASC Dortmund 3-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Stimbergstrasse in Oer-Erkenschwick.