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Ergué-Gaberic vs Vannes — Coupe de France 2018

Ergué-Gaberic
Ergué-Gaberic
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vannes
Vannes
11/27/2021Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 8th RoundStade Lestonan 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ergué-Gaberic31%
×Draw24%
Vannes45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ergué-Gaberic
1.33
Vannes
1.67

Vannes creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ergué-Gaberic
1.67
Vannes
1.67

allows per match

Ergué-Gaberic
1.67
Vannes
1.00

finishing

Ergué-Gaberic+0.00on par
Vannes+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ergué-Gaberic ↓

Vannes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ergué-Gaberic or draw
55%
Ergué-Gaberic or Vannes
76%
Draw or Vannes
69%

Winning margin

Ergué-Gaberic wins by 2+
13%
Vannes wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Ergué-Gaberic 1+ goals
74%
Ergué-Gaberic 2+ goals
38%
Ergué-Gaberic 3+ goals
15%
Vannes 1+ goals
81%
Vannes 2+ goals
50%
Vannes 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ergué-Gaberic (draw refunded)
40%
Vannes (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ergué-Gaberic at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Vannes away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ergué-Gaberic attack 1.67 + Vannes defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Vannes attack 1.67 + Ergué-Gaberic defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ergué-Gaberic scores more
31%
level
24%
Vannes scores more
45%

Vannes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vannes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ergué-Gaberic vs Vannes

Vannes beat Ergué-Gaberic 2-1 in Coupe de France on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Lestonan 1 in Ergue Gaberic.