Ergué-Gaberic 1–2 Stade Plabennec: Result & Stats

Ergué-Gaberic

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Stade Plabennec

P. Le Reste 27' (pen)

N. Madec 77'

Y. Kujabi 35'

11/19/2022

Coupe de France · 8th RoundStade Lestonan 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ergué-Gaberic31%

×Draw22%

Stade Plabennec47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ergué-GabericExpected goals in this matchStade Plabennec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.96

Ergué-Gaberic

1.58

Stade Plabennec

1.96

Stade Plabennec creates 24% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.67

creates per match

2.25

1.67

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Ergué-Gaberic

1.67

Stade Plabennec

2.25

allows per match

Ergué-Gaberic

1.67

Stade Plabennec

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ergué-Gaberic+0.00on par

Stade Plabennec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ergué-Gaberic ↓

Stade Plabennec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Ergué-Gaberic or draw

53%

Ergué-Gaberic or Stade Plabennec

78%

Draw or Stade Plabennec

69%

Winning margin

Ergué-Gaberic wins by 2+

15%

Stade Plabennec wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Ergué-Gaberic 1+ goals

79%

Ergué-Gaberic 2+ goals

47%

Ergué-Gaberic 3+ goals

21%

Stade Plabennec 1+ goals

86%

Stade Plabennec 2+ goals

58%

Stade Plabennec 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Ergué-Gaberic (draw refunded)

40%

Stade Plabennec (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ergué-Gaberic at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Stade Plabennec away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ergué-Gaberic attack 1.67 + Stade Plabennec defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Stade Plabennec attack 2.25 + Ergué-Gaberic defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ergué-Gaberic scores more

31%

level

22%

Stade Plabennec scores more

47%

Stade Plabennec at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stade Plabennec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

P. Le RestePenalty

35'

Y. Kujabi

46'

E. Lucas← J. Herry

50'

N. Madec← L. Guegan

56'

M. Guillamot← K. Bourglan

69'

D. Elin← Y. Kujabi

75'

J. Le Saos← R. Mourdi

77'

N. Madec

82'

B. Diop← M. Le Roux

82'

M. Le Gall← W. Guéguen Grall

86'

C. Gloanec← F. Thomas

Ergué-Gaberic

Stade

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

46'▲E. Lucas←▼J. Herry

56'▲M. Guillamot←▼K. Bourglan

82'▲B. Diop←▼M. Le Roux

82'▲M. Le Gall←▼W. Guéguen Grall

86'▲C. Gloanec←▼F. Thomas

Ergué-Gaberic substitutes

LucasGuillamotDiopGallGloanecMoucazamboMonfort

Manager: B. Maligorne

50'▲N. Madec←▼L. Guegan

69'▲D. Elin←▼Y. Kujabi

75'▲J. Le Saos←▼R. Mourdi

Stade Plabennec substitutes

MadecElinSaosLaurentSimaneCorbéUguen

Coupe de France: Ergué-Gaberic 1–2 Stade Plabennec

Stade Plabennec beat Ergué-Gaberic 2-1 in Coupe de France on November 19, 2022.

Goals: P. Le Reste (27' pen), Y. Kujabi (35'), N. Madec (77').

The match was played at Stade Lestonan 1 in Ergue Gaberic.

Ergué-Gaberic vs Stade Plabennec — Coupe de France 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Coupe de France: Ergué-Gaberic 1–2 Stade Plabennec