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Ergene Velimeşespor vs Karacabey Belediyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Ergene Velimeşespor
Ergene Velimeşespor
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Karacabey Belediyespor
Karacabey Belediyespor
11/5/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundMustafa Kemal Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ergene Velimeşespor12%
×Draw20%
Karacabey Belediyespor69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ergene Velimeşespor
0.70
Karacabey Belediyespor
2.04

Karacabey Belediyespor creates 191% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Ergene Velimeşespor
0.40
Karacabey Belediyespor
1.88

allows per match

Ergene Velimeşespor
2.20
Karacabey Belediyespor
1.00

finishing

Ergene Velimeşespor+0.00on par
Karacabey Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ergene Velimeşespor ↓

Karacabey Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–113%
0–214%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ergene Velimeşespor or draw
31%
Ergene Velimeşespor or Karacabey Belediyespor
80%
Draw or Karacabey Belediyespor
88%

Winning margin

Ergene Velimeşespor wins by 2+
3%
Karacabey Belediyespor wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Ergene Velimeşespor 1+ goals
50%
Ergene Velimeşespor 2+ goals
16%
Ergene Velimeşespor 3+ goals
3%
Karacabey Belediyespor 1+ goals
87%
Karacabey Belediyespor 2+ goals
60%
Karacabey Belediyespor 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Ergene Velimeşespor (draw refunded)
15%
Karacabey Belediyespor (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ergene Velimeşespor at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Karacabey Belediyespor away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ergene Velimeşespor attack 0.40 + Karacabey Belediyespor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.70

Karacabey Belediyespor attack 1.88 + Ergene Velimeşespor defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Ergene Velimeşespor scores more
12%
level
20%
Karacabey Belediyespor scores more
69%

Karacabey Belediyespor at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Karacabey Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ergene Velimeşespor vs Karacabey Belediyespor

Karacabey Belediyespor beat Ergene Velimeşespor 3-0 in Türkiye Kupası on November 5, 2020.

The match was played at Mustafa Kemal Atatürk Stadyumu in Velimeşe.